The United States is maneuvering its distant hand between the two giants of the East and the West to maintain its hegemony during the Russo-Ukrainian war. In a seven-hour meeting with Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi on March 14, U.S. National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan expressed concern about China’s alliance with Russia as Washington warned again that Beijing would be isolated and punished. So what is it?  
Obviously, we can see the watch market has been slowing down from the end of February to now as most dealers are liquidating their funds to keep up with the buying power of new replica watches after Wonders 2022 on March 30. Some of the current deals are good if you have enough cash, but who knows what will happen in April?
Well, I’m optimistic about the watch market, especially the Big 4 or Big 5 watches. However, many of my friends, bloggers, dealers and collectors have been panic selling these past two weeks.
At the start of COVID-19, Rolex had already shut down some production in 2019 at around 700,000 units, however, in 2020 they have increased production to 810,000 units and even to 1.05 million units in 2021. Referring to the attached chart, Rolex reaches CHF 8 billion in 2021. What I notice is that among these big companies, Rolex almost doubles its revenue in 2021 compared to 2020, then Vacheron Constantin has the second-largest revenue growth at about 40%, probably because Overseas and FiftySix are gaining the attention of those who simply cannot get Nautilus and Royal Oak.
Based on these numbers, if anything, the definition of a luxury watch is $5,000 to $50,000. There are not many luxury replica watches from the top 10 Swiss watchmakers that fall into these ranges. For example, Switzerland produces 6 million watches per year in 2021, of which only a small percentage will enter the “luxury category”, perhaps only 20%, or about 1.2 million watches per year.
Do you think 1.2 million luxury watches are enough for those discerning customers around the world?
Don’t overlook that there will be about 5 million new millionaires with assets over $1 million in 2020. Therefore, 5 to 7 million people will enter this luxury market every year. They are never short of money, they just many of them are phobic about Nautilus, Royal Oak, Aquanaut, Overseas, Daytona, and RM. So I am sure that the so-called fake watch bubble will not burst at least until 2022.